Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah's disclosure that his party is likely to be implicated in the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri could send the country sliding back to chaos, analysts warn.
"This new situation is very alarming," said Paul Salem, head of the Beirut-based Carnegie Middle East Centre.
"Hezbollah is in a very worrisome position and the tribunal is just one symptom of this position," Salem said in reference to the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL).
"If there is movement towards peace in the region, then Hezbollah has a problem," he added. "If there's movement toward war, Hezbollah has a problem. And now if the tribunal moves forward, they will also have a problem."
Oussama Safa, who heads the Lebanese Centre for Policy Studies, estimates Lebanon has a "50-50 chance" of descending into yet another round of violence in the light of Nasrallah's surprise announcement late on Thursday.
In a rare press conference, Nasrallah said Prime Minister Saad Hariri had informed him in May that Hezbollah members would be accused by the STL.
"The country could go towards a confrontation and it could also go towards a way to contain this – certainly not by stopping the indictment," Safa said. "But I think all parties have an interest in containing this."
Politicians and judges, including STL president Antonio Cassese, have said they expect an indictment by the end of the year, sparking fears of a repeat of the violence in May 2008 that brought Lebanon close to a new civil war.
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