BEIRUT: When President Michel Sleiman takes to the podium to address global heads of state at the 66th meeting of the United Nations General Assembly this week, he is likely to choose his words carefully.
With troubling issues domestically and abroad, Sleiman is set to eschew mention of ongoing unrest in neighboring Syria and the divisive Special Tribunal for Lebanon, focusing instead on the bid for Palestinian statehood, analysts told The Daily Star Sunday.
Hilal Khashan, professor of Political Science at the American University of Beirut, said Sleiman had a history of gentle diplomacy at previous General Assembly sessions.
“The most important thing he will say will be a repetition of the things that he has been saying for years. He will say the Lebanese cannot tolerate a large population of Palestinians in Lebanon and will advocate the call for their own state,” Khashan said.
“I don’t think he will mention Syria and will not point to problems in Lebanon. If you follow his speeches, be they national or international, [Sleiman] has not mentioned [unrest in Syria]. The Lebanese president is incapable for obvious reasons to deal with developments in Syria,” he added.
Lebanon, which holds the rotating presidency of the U.N. Security Council throughout September, last month disassociated itself from a statement criticizing the crackdown on peaceful protesters sanctioned by President Bashar Assad in Syria.
Foreign Minister Adnan Mansour has indicated that Lebanon would abstain from any possible sanctions against Syria during its time at the helm of the Security Council. Given the divided nature of Lebanon’s political and popular circles vis-à-vis Syria, Sleiman is likely to shun mention of his powerful neighbor altogether, according to Khashan.
“It’s not a question of delivering a realistic speech. The question is delivering what is possible,” he said. “Lebanon is a satellite state, so don’t expect it to criticize that which influences it.”Political scientist Simon Haddad said that while Lebanon’s non-committal attitude over Syria risked putting it at odds with the international community, Sleiman had little choice but to avoid confrontation.
“The international environment is against Syria. Lebanon is trying to absorb some of the tension and [trying] to come up with a more or less neutral position. As long as the regime in Syria is still powerful, Lebanon cannot go against it,” Haddad said.
He noted that Sleiman would be under almost unanimous domestic pressure to champion the cause of Palestinian statehood.
“[Sleiman] has to vocally support the bid [in the General Assembly], especially with the presence of Palestinian refugees in Lebanon,” Haddad said. “If he went against it, it could be seen as refusing their right for return. This is one position that he has to encourage.”
Another potential pitfall is the STL, which has divided Lebanon’s political elite for years. Lebanon is obliged to provide its share of funding for the court, which it has so far failed to do in 2011.
Haddad said it was unlikely Sleiman would explicitly mention the tribunal, so as to avoid making Lebanon subject to accusations of double-standards.
A version of this article appeared in the print edition of The Daily Star on September 19, 2011, on page 1.
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