By Hussein Dakroub
BEIRUT: Despite repeated Arab and
international warnings over a fallout of the 17-month uprising in Syria
spreading to Lebanon, the Syrian turmoil has spilled over into the politically
divided country, threatening to plunge it into total chaos, analysts and
political sources said Thursday.
“The spillover of the Syrian
uprising has reached Lebanon,” Hilal Khashan, professor of political sciences
at the American University of Beirut, told The Daily Star. “Lebanon is poised
for heightened insecurity that falls short of a civil war, mainly as a result
of the spillover of the Syrian unrest, into the country.”
Wednesday’s mass kidnappings of over
two dozen Syrians, a Turkish national and a Saudi citizen by a local Lebanese
clan in retaliation for the abduction of one of its kinsmen by Syrian rebels as
well as the blocking of Beirut airport road and the Beirut-Damascus highway at
the Masnaa border crossing with burning tires by rival protesters have revived
memories of the chaos and anarchy that reigned during the 1975-90 Civil War
when rival militias held sway at the expense of state authority.
During the Civil War years,
lawlessness and insecurity prevailed, especially in the capital Beirut, where
foreign citizens of various nationalities were kidnapped by militant groups.
In response to security threats,
five Gulf states, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait and
Bahrain, have urged their citizens to leave Lebanon immediately after the
Meqdad Shiite clan kidnapped more than 20 Syrians in Beirut and initially
threatened to seize more Arab nationals in retaliation for the abduction of Hassan
Meqdad by Syrian rebels.
The mass kidnappings of Syrians,
directly linked to the turmoil in Syria, cast further doubts over Lebanon’s
ability to weather the storm in its eastern neighbor Syria.
“What happened today is a clear
indication that we are [on] the brink of major chaos in Lebanon,” a senior
political source told The Daily Star Thursday.
“The storm in Syria has reached
Lebanon now and there is no going back,” the source said, speaking on condition
of anonymity.
However, Khashan said he did not believe
that Lebanon was drifting into total chaos following the wave of kidnappings
and the appearance of masked gunmen on TV.
“The kidnappings were a tension
relief exercise. Hezbollah controlled the Shiites. There is no logical reason
for them [Hezbollah] to allow the situation to go out of the control,” Khashan
said. “Level headedness will prevail.”
“What happened yesterday was an
expression of anger and frustration. The sight on TV of the Free Syrian Army
displaying Hassan Meqdad, whom the FSA accused of being a Hezbollah member,
with bruises on his face, angered many Hezbollah supporters. The kidnappings
were [designed] to vent their spleen,” he added.
However, Future MP Ahmad Fatfat had
a different opinion. “What happened was a total collapse of the state and a
flagrant inability of the Army and security forces to do their job in repulsing
any attack, even an internal attack, on Lebanese sovereignty,” Fatfat told the
Voice of Lebanon radio station.
“The attack and kidnappings that
took place in Beirut and a number of areas meant that the state was absent.
This takes us to a civil war,” he added.
Khashan said that there was no
regional or international decision to rekindle civil war in Lebanon. “Iran and
Arab Gulf states do not want a civil war in Lebanon,” he said.
A similar view was echoed by
political analyst Talal Atrissi.
“I don’t think Lebanon is facing the
threat of a civil war following the wave of kidnappings,” Atrissi, an expert on
Iran and Middle East affairs, told The Daily Star. “There is no internal,
regional or international decision for the security situation to spin out of
control. Priority is now for Syria. Therefore, no civil war in Lebanon,” he
said. “Regional and international powers are still supporting Lebanon’s
stability and security.”
Atrissi said the root cause of the
current tension in Lebanon was the kidnapping by Syrian rebels of 11 Lebanese
pilgrims in May and Meqdad last week.
“Before the spate of kidnappings,
tension with Syria was confined to border incidents,” he said.
Politicians and analysts have long
held the view that Lebanon’s security and stability are intertwined with
Syria’s security and stability.
Violence in Syria has often spilled
over into Lebanon, jolting the country’s already fragile security situation,
with cross-border shootings, shelling by the Syrian army, tit-for-tat
kidnappings and sectarian clashes. Several Lebanese have been killed and
wounded by Syrian gunfire in a series of deadly incidents on the
Lebanese-Syrian border in recent months.
But the latest spate of kidnappings
has fueled fears that the unrest in Syria could further destabilize Lebanon,
which has struggled for decades with wars, sectarian strife and a weak
political system.
The split between the Hezbollah-led
March 8 alliance and the opposition March 14 coalition over the Syrian crisis
has raised fears of the turmoil in Syria spilling over to Lebanon.
The U.S. has also expressed
consternation. “Our concern in Lebanon, first and foremost, has been the
spillover from the Syrian conflict and the fact that the sectarian tensions in
Syria are potentially being replicated in Lebanon,” State Department
spokeswoman Victoria Nuland told reporters in Washington.
The government of Prime Minister
Najib Mikati has adopted a policy to dissociate Lebanon from the repercussions
of the unrest in Syria.
Mikati condemned the kidnappings,
but his government seemed largely powerless to act. “This brings us back to the
days of the painful war, a page that Lebanese citizens have been trying to
turn,” he said of the 1975-90 Civil War when Western hostages were seized by
armed groups.
Implicitly admitting his
government’s inability to act, Mikati called for the formation of an
extraordinary government to cope with what he termed the “difficult and
extraordinary” situation through which the country was passing.
“This is a battle for Lebanon’s
survival. We have to protect Lebanon with all the strength we have.” Mikati
told reporters before a Cabinet session at Beiteddine Palace. “We are living in
the storm. Therefore, we have to close ranks to face problems and crises.”
Atrissi blamed the Mikati government
for weakening state authority and preventing the Army from imposing law and
order. “Political and sectarian interests inside the government are preventing
the Army from imposing security and state authority,” he said.
Khashan, the AUB professor, said
Lebanon is “a soft state.”
“Security has long been based on
consensus. The state cannot impose security on the people. Security is achieved
through negotiations and compromise,” he said. “The Lebanese state is not
authoritative. Rather, it is a soft state.”
Khashan said that instability in
Lebanon served the cause of both the Syrian regime and the rebel Free Syrian
Army for different reasons and motives.
“The Syrian regime wants to
destabilize Lebanon in order to export its problems to the region. Lebanon is
the weakest link in the region,” Khashan said. “Likewise, the Free Syrian Army
believes that instability in Lebanon will invite Western intervention in both
Syria and Lebanon,” he added.
The Meqdad clan, which hails from
east Lebanon’s Bekaa region, said Wednesday it kidnapped over 30 men it said
were members or supporters of the FSA in retaliation for the abduction of one
of its kinsmen.
Maher Meqdad, who said his family
fields an armed wing, told The Daily Star Wednesday that his clan had taken
matters into its own hands as the Lebanese government had taken no steps to
free Hassan Meqdad.
“We will do it ourselves, and we have what you
can call a regulated army to do the job,” he said. He added that his family was
acting according to the “eye for an eye” principle, and no longer needs the
government’s intervention.http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Politics/2012/Aug-17/184899-syria-turmoil-puts-lebanon-on-brink-of-chaos.ashx#axzz23pl5xycQ
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