By Mirella Hodeib
BEIRUT: Hezbollah will not resort to
retaliatory action after the arrest of its close ally, former minister and MP
Michel Samaha, out of keenness to conserve stability in the country in light of
the bloodshed in Syria, politicians and analysts said Friday.
“It is highly unlikely that Hezbollah will
rock the boat,” said Randa Slim, scholar at the Middle East Institute. “They
will adopt a wait-and-see attitude until solid evidence emerges.”
She added that Hezbollah and its leader Sayyed
Hasan Nasrallah were very clear about not messing with the current stability in
the country. “[Hezbollah is thinking] if the price is going to be Michel Samaha
then let it be,” said the analyst.
Pro-Hezbollah political and military analyst
and former Brig. Gen. Amin Hoteit agrees. He argued that the wisest conduct was
to wait until the “circumstances that led to the arrest are revealed.”
“Resorting to the street is demagogical and
only contributes to reinforcing lawlessness,” Hoteit said.
A close adviser and friend to embattled Syrian
President Bashar Assad, Samaha was arrested by the Internal Security Forces’
Information Branch Thursday on suspicion of being involved in a plot to carry
out terrorist attacks in north Lebanon upon orders from Syrian officials.
Slim said that Hezbollah will most likely
allow the judicial investigation to take its full course, adding that the party
will gradually distance itself from Samaha.
“In the end, Hezbollah does not want to be
seen as supporting someone who is accused of plotting to kill other Lebanese.”
The three-time minister and former Metn
lawmaker began his eventful political career as part of the Kataeb Party in the
late 1960s before making a U-turn in 1985 when he endorsed the Syria-brokered
Tripartite Agreement to end the Civil War in Lebanon between the Lebanese
Forces of the late Elie Hobeika, the Amal Movement and the Progressive
Socialist Party.
Samaha’s durable ties to the Assad regime were
coupled with equally strong ties to the French intelligence services, earning
him a French Legion d’Honneur (Order of Merit). He is said to have attended
since 1990 almost all the meetings between French officials and the late Syrian
President Hafez Assad, and later on his son Bashar.
In parallel to his work as an adviser to
Bashar Assad and his close aide Bouthaina Shaaban, Samaha has reinvented
himself in recent years as a political and strategic analyst, actively lobbying
in favor of the Syria-Iran axis and of Hezbollah.
However, Hezbollah’s vigilant stance with
regard to the arrest has kept many wondering.
“I was literally shocked when I heard the news
about Michel’s arrest and the accusations made against him,” said Karim
Pakradouni, the former head of the Kataeb Party and Samaha’s close friend. “But
in such circumstances and in light of such accusations one needs to be very
prudent.”
Slim said that Hezbollah has been informed of
the arrest, adding that the mere fact that the party let it happen “is highly
revealing.”
Slim’s reading echoes the stance of the March
14 alliance with regard to the arrest.
March 14 sources privately argue that
Hezbollah is opposed to attempts by the Syrian regime and its proxies in
Lebanon to destabilize the country.
Head of the International-Lebanese Committee
for United Nations Security Council Resolution 1559, Toni Nissi is unequivocal
in claiming that Hezbollah stood behind Samaha’s arrest, adding that the party
will not back the politician even if he is charged of operating upon the orders
of the Assad regime.
“Unlike Assad who seeks to create instability
in Lebanon to secure his regime’s survival, both Iran’s and Hezbollah’s
strategic interests lie in stability and peace,” said Nissi.
Slim concurs, saying that both the March 8 and
the March 14 camps sought to avoid the scenario of violence. “One common
opinion between the two camps is that they want to avoid the unrest in Syria
spilling over to Lebanon.”
Nissi said that the Islamic Republic would
like to help the Syrian government against its adversaries in Syria “by maybe
sending mercenaries [there] but not through creating instability in Lebanon.”
“Any instability in Lebanon, any Shiite-Sunni
conflict in Lebanon is against the interests of Hezbollah,” Nissi added.
Although he disagrees with the theory that
stipulates that Hezbollah and the Information Branch have coordinated Samaha’s
arrest due to the long-standing rivalry between the two, Hoteit maintains that
the arrest was another attempt to drag Hezbollah into an internal fight that
will eventually degenerate into Sunni-Shiite strife.
“Hezbollah is well aware of the United States’
scheme to drag it into an internal war,” said Hoteit.
“Hezbollah has so far moved away from any
violent reactions regarding attempts to force it to use its weapons on the
internal scene, but I can’t tell how long this will last.”
According to Pakradouni, who defended Samaha
by saying he “has never used arms,” the arrest was definitely a “signal or
message” to Syria and the group he belongs to in Lebanon.
“This is definitely a moral blow to Samaha and
the March 8 group,” said the veteran politician. “But neither March 8 nor Syria
will be destabilized by this new development. I think they are strong enough to
overcome it.”
While Slim ruled out the assumption that
Samaha’s arrest was a message to the Syrian regime, saying it was strictly tied
to the internal dynamics of the country, Hoteit contends that it was directly
tied to weakening Lebanon’s Christian population.
But a source closely following up on the case
told The Daily Star that the arrest was aimed at gradually disposing of all the
figures that tie Lebanon to the struggling Syrian leadership.
“They cannot take it out on
Hezbollah or [Marada Movement leader] Sleiman Franjieh, for example, who enjoy
wide popular backing,” said the source. “They chose the weakest link, Michel
Samaha, a Catholic Christian who has little if any backing among his
community.” – With additional reporting by Van Meguerditchianhttp://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Politics/2012/Aug-11/184238-hezbollah-will-not-react-after-samaha-arrest.ashx#axzz22xdpMYwe
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