By Hasan Lakkis
Parliamentary sources believe last
week’s arrest of former MP Michel Samaha will carry political effects alongside
its security implications for several reasons, among them Samaha’s association
with March 8, his staunch defense of Hezbollah and close links to Syrian
leadership.
The sources said that the judicial
procedure in Samaha’s case would be lengthy, despite reports that he recanted
his statements before the military judge, as the only witness in the case,
Milad Kfoury, is reported to have left the country and has been granted leave
by authorities not to participate in the investigation. This will prompt the
March 8 coalition to raise questions regarding Kfoury’s role, especially now
that Samaha has recanted his statements.
The sources said that while the
judicial procedure is well known, Samaha’s detention immediately heralded a
political crisis in the country, as the veteran politician is a potential
treasure trove of information on Syria’s role in Lebanon over the past decades.
An indicator of the gravity of this
crisis is the March 14 coalition’s swift exploitation of it. The bloc has made
bold, and likely unrealistic, demands which began with calls to sever ties with
Syria, expel Ali Abdel-Karim Ali, Syria’s ambassador to Lebanon, and recall
Michel Khoury, Lebanon’s ambassador to Syria. The demands then developed into
calls for lodging a complaint against Syria before the U.N. Security Council
over charges against Syrian Maj. Gen. Ali Mamlouk for taking part in plotting
the terrorist attacks along with Samaha.
Although political sources believe
such demands will not be met by the Cabinet given its current makeup, the
sources believe that these demands will definitely confuse Prime Minister Najib
Mikati, who prior to their receipt had said his government should adhere to
what the judiciary decides.
For his part, Foreign Minister Adnan
Mansour said it was still early to talk about the repercussions on
Lebanese-Syrian ties and that it is necessary to wait for what the judiciary
decides.
The same sources said that the March
14 coalition will try to corner Mikati by giving him two choices: Either he
meets the demands of the March 14 coalition or he will continue to be attacked.
In light of Samaha recanting his
statements, it is clear that the March 8 coalition is preparing for a
counterattack which will focus on discrediting the Internal Security Forces Information
Branch and the news it is releasing, especially relating to Samaha and its role
in the 2005 arrest of pro-Syrian officers Jamil Sayyed, Raymond Azar, Mustafa
Hamdan and Ali Hajj.
The coalition is likely to accuse
the Information Branch of being affiliated with certain political parties and
will raise the issue of its legality. The sources expect that such a move will
spark division inside the Cabinet since President Michel Sleiman, Mikati and
ministers loyal to Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblatt will not
accept the targeting of the Information Branch.
Such a dispute, the sources
continued, would lead to the following formula inside the Cabinet: None of the
Cabinet parties will call for severing ties with Syria in return for others refraining
from attacking the Information Branch.
This dispute will add to the many
disputes Lebanon’s Cabinet – which raises the slogan “All for Country, all for
Work” – suffers from.
Political sources believe that the
other dimension to the issue of Samaha’s arrest is that it signals the end for
Syrian influence in Lebanon. They believe the March 8 coalition’s non-response
to Samaha’s arrest might encourage the opposition to embark on similar moves
targeting March 8 figures.
Sources sympathetic to the March 8
coalition expect that the bloc will await the outcome of the investigation and
formulate a studied response to Samaha’s detention. These sources said that
this might take time because Kfoury is reported to have left the country.
The sources added that the March 8
coalition would likely focus on two things in its counterattack: raising
questions about Kfoury’s credibility and discrediting the Information Branch.
The sources queried whether March 8’s response
will be restricted to politics if the March 14 coalition continues its attack
on Samaha’s ties with Syria, as many believe that Samaha’s arrest targets
Hezbollah.http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Politics/2012/Aug-14/184591-impact-of-samaha-case-yet-to-unfold.ashx#axzz23VassrgN
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