Photo: AFP
Lebanon is unlikely to arrest Hezbollah operatives charged with the 2005 assassination of ex-premier Rafiq Hariri and now risks being given the cold shoulder by its Western backers, experts warn.
"It is unlikely that Hezbollah is planning any action so long as nobody tries to make any arrests, and we all know that no one can implement arrest warrants against members of Hezbollah," said a senior analyst at the London-based Exclusive Analysis.
"What's more likely is that there will be targeted sanctions against members of Hezbollah and tightened sanctions against Syrians and Iranians, which is the global trend right now," he told AFP, requesting anonymity.
Six years after the bombing that killed Hariri and 22 others, the UN-backed Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) issued an indictment in the case, which for years has been at the heart of a deep political rift in the volatile Middle Eastern country.
Hezbollah has not yet commented on the arrest warrants issued by the tribunal for four Lebanese -- all of them operatives of the Iranian- and Syrian-backed group and one of whom carries US citizenship -- but has repeatedly warned it would not stand by idly if any of its members are accused.
The Lebanese are bracing for a possible backlash both domestically and on the international scene, with observers saying US military aid to Lebanon could be the first to go.
But experts downplay the likelihood of violence following the arrest warrants, which come at a delicate time for Hezbollah as its backer, Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad, faces an unprecedented uprising at home.
"It is unlikely that there will be arrests, but I wouldn't rule it out completely if Hezbollah determines that giving up one or two members may be to its advantage," said Beirut-based analyst Michael Young.
"All signs thus far are that it will not do so," Young told AFP. "However, we should bear in mind that the party may also have an alternate strategy."
Hassan Nasrallah, who heads the militant movement, is due to announce his position against the indictment in a televised speech on Saturday.
Last week Nasrallah announced that three members of his movement had been recruited by the CIA were working for the US spy agency -- in the first such revelation by Hezbollah which prides itself on its discipline.
Experts say the announcement is likely part of a campaign launched last year to discredit the STL, but will now likely have little impact on the tribunal's course.
"It is possible that the disclosure of the CIA infiltration was another attempt to soften the blow of the indictment, but it will likely have little effect on the nature of the indictments," said Hilal Khashan, political science professor at the American University of Beirut.
"Hassan Nasrallah will likely take the path that he has for the past year and say: 'We are not concerned with the indictments, they represent an American Zionist conspiracy'," Khashan told AFP.
All eyes are now on the government of Prime Minister Najib Mikati, in which Hezbollah and its allies hold the majority of seats and effectively control the key ministries involved in any possible arrests.
US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whose country blacklists Hezbollah as a terrorist organisation, on Friday called on the Lebanese government to uphold its obligations to international law, a call echoed by UN chief Ban Ki-moon.
Mikati on Thursday unveiled his government's programme, which includes a vague clause saying Lebanon would respect international resolutions as long as they did not threaten civil peace or stability in Lebanon.
And while it remains to be seen how his cabinet will handle the arrest warrants, experts doubt that Hezbollah, which fought a devastating war with Israel in 2006, will take any unnecessary risks.
"Hezbollah has spent a year trying to cushion the blow of these indictments and has succeeded, to some extent," Young said.
"It may believe that a tribunal trial is something it can weather, while another war with Israel would be devastating to the party, the Shiite community and all of south Lebanon."
"What's more likely is that there will be targeted sanctions against members of Hezbollah and tightened sanctions against Syrians and Iranians, which is the global trend right now," he told AFP, requesting anonymity.
Six years after the bombing that killed Hariri and 22 others, the UN-backed Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) issued an indictment in the case, which for years has been at the heart of a deep political rift in the volatile Middle Eastern country.
Hezbollah has not yet commented on the arrest warrants issued by the tribunal for four Lebanese -- all of them operatives of the Iranian- and Syrian-backed group and one of whom carries US citizenship -- but has repeatedly warned it would not stand by idly if any of its members are accused.
The Lebanese are bracing for a possible backlash both domestically and on the international scene, with observers saying US military aid to Lebanon could be the first to go.
But experts downplay the likelihood of violence following the arrest warrants, which come at a delicate time for Hezbollah as its backer, Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad, faces an unprecedented uprising at home.
"It is unlikely that there will be arrests, but I wouldn't rule it out completely if Hezbollah determines that giving up one or two members may be to its advantage," said Beirut-based analyst Michael Young.
"All signs thus far are that it will not do so," Young told AFP. "However, we should bear in mind that the party may also have an alternate strategy."
Hassan Nasrallah, who heads the militant movement, is due to announce his position against the indictment in a televised speech on Saturday.
Last week Nasrallah announced that three members of his movement had been recruited by the CIA were working for the US spy agency -- in the first such revelation by Hezbollah which prides itself on its discipline.
Experts say the announcement is likely part of a campaign launched last year to discredit the STL, but will now likely have little impact on the tribunal's course.
"It is possible that the disclosure of the CIA infiltration was another attempt to soften the blow of the indictment, but it will likely have little effect on the nature of the indictments," said Hilal Khashan, political science professor at the American University of Beirut.
"Hassan Nasrallah will likely take the path that he has for the past year and say: 'We are not concerned with the indictments, they represent an American Zionist conspiracy'," Khashan told AFP.
All eyes are now on the government of Prime Minister Najib Mikati, in which Hezbollah and its allies hold the majority of seats and effectively control the key ministries involved in any possible arrests.
US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whose country blacklists Hezbollah as a terrorist organisation, on Friday called on the Lebanese government to uphold its obligations to international law, a call echoed by UN chief Ban Ki-moon.
Mikati on Thursday unveiled his government's programme, which includes a vague clause saying Lebanon would respect international resolutions as long as they did not threaten civil peace or stability in Lebanon.
And while it remains to be seen how his cabinet will handle the arrest warrants, experts doubt that Hezbollah, which fought a devastating war with Israel in 2006, will take any unnecessary risks.
"Hezbollah has spent a year trying to cushion the blow of these indictments and has succeeded, to some extent," Young said.
"It may believe that a tribunal trial is something it can weather, while another war with Israel would be devastating to the party, the Shiite community and all of south Lebanon."
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