BEIRUT: The zero-hour deal reached this week to pay Lebanon’s share of 2011 funding for the Special Tribunal for Lebanon meant that Prime Minister Najib Mikati did not have to follow through with his threat to resign and that Lebanon is free – for the time being – from international sanctions.
But a Cabinet in which Hezbollah calls most of the shots supporting a court that accuses its members of assassinating Rafik Hariri cannot come to pass without the current restive climate in Syria, according to a senior political source.
“With all the storms around us in the region, especially over Syria, it is vital that we in Lebanon maintain our immunity and stability. This is best done by keeping this government afloat and functioning through finding a way to fund the STL,” the source said.
Given Syria’s increasing isolation, it is important for President Bashar Assad to have allies in charge of Lebanon. Beirut’s government has been one of very few to disassociate itself from or vote against United Nations and Arab League sanctions in Syria, and Damascus is keen to keep it that way.
Just as Syria needs a stable – and friendly – administration in Lebanon, so too does the health of the Lebanese government depend on sustained Syrian support. Saving the current Cabinet was mutually beneficial, even if what it took to save it was perhaps unpalatable for STL detractors, according to analysts.
“This government is based on power balances that were constructed in January. The future of the government and the balance of power is dependent on what happens in Syria,” said Paul Salem, director of the Carnegie Middle East Center. “The fall of the regime in Syria would make Hezbollah more vulnerable but we don’t see the effect of that now. No one wants Lebanon to be recalibrated at the moment.”
With Syria’s influence still looming large in Lebanese affairs, the next few months are likely to test this Cabinet’s resolve, as Assad finds his tenure increasingly difficult amid sanctions and travel bans.
“Under normal circumstances, this Cabinet would be able to work together fairly well, given that it is based on a largely majoritarian formula. The situation in Syria, though, seems most likely to test this government’s cohesiveness,” said Elias Muhanna, author of the Lebanese Political blog Qifa Nabki.
The decision to fund the tribunal demonstrated that the current government values staying intact above a principled stance. The STL maintained that its operations would continue with or without Lebanese funding, even if failure to abide by U.N. Security Council Resolution 1757 would have placed Lebanon in direct opposition to the international community.
Although Hezbollah and its allies in Amal Movement and the Free Patriotic Movement had voiced their opposition to paying for a court they claim is a conspiracy, bringing down the government would have been too high a price to pay, analysts said.
Salem and Muhanna suggested that a tacit deal to fund the tribunal may have been in place for some time; the delay could have been a byproduct of court opponents seeking concessions from Prime Minister Najib Mikati, who had threatened to resign if an agreement was not reached.
“In the formation of the government, we don’t know if Hezbollah told Mikati it was clear it was committed [to tribunal funding] but it was Mikati’s understanding it would not break with international agreements,” Salem said.
Muhanna added: “It is entirely possible that [FPM leader Michel] Aoun and Hezbollah had come to an agreement to let the funding go through months ago, but decided to put up a fight in order to extract some valuable concessions out of Mikati.”
As well as averting potential sanctions, Wednesday’s decision has also helped to rebuild some of the international community’s lost confidence in Lebanon, after its stances on Syria.
Nadim Shehadi, associate fellow at the London-based think tank Chatham House, said that while Lebanon’s commitment to the STL is by no means complete, its support for the tribunal will be tested beyond the latest crisis over funding.
“The Lebanese government still has to cooperate by handing over the suspects to the STL and this will probably be an element of the next crisis,” he said. “The importance of the STL is that it is not only about the assassination of Hariri, it is also a challenge to a whole political culture that has prevailed in the region for the last 40 years and thus has significant regional implications.”
By supporting the tribunal, a Cabinet containing STL opponents has shown it is keen to at least be seen as in favor of international justice, Shehadi added.
There are many issues down the road likely to test the current administration’s unity. In addition to 2012’s draft budget, there are several pieces of legislation that need discussing, including a likely divisive draft election law and a planned overhaul of the energy sector.
Muhanna said Lebanon’s political sectarianism made disagreement likely for any government, regardless of its complexion.
“Coalition governments all around the world have to deal with paralysis, stalemate, and extensive negotiation in order to get legislation passed. Lebanon is particularly vulnerable to breakdown because of the added confessional element,” he said.
The government took months to build and has overcome a major hurdle by funding the STL. Salem argued that the Cabinet’s March 8 core would likely seek to keep power in general rather than crumble on a matter of principle, whatever that principle proves to be.
“It’s a government of contradictions but they have common interests. Aoun is a heavy bargainer but he wants to remain in government. The prime minister wants to stay in too,” he said.
“[This Cabinet] will likely lurch from crisis to crisis and see what they can get out of it.”
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