If Prime Minister Najib Mikati resigns next week over the
Cabinet’s failure to approve the payment of Lebanon’s share of the funding to a
U.N.-backed court as he has warned, it will be difficult if not impossible to
form a new government, according to ministerial sources close to the prime
minister.
The sources said the situation with regard to funding the STL
has changed following Mikati’s declared determination Thursday to quit if the
Cabinet failed in its meeting on Nov. 30 to endorse a treasury loan for this
purpose.
If Mikati is forced to resign over the STL’s funding, he will
not accept being named again to form a new government, thus throwing the
country into a vacuum in which it will be difficult, if not impossible, to form
a new Cabinet in view of the current internal and regional political situation,
sources told The Daily Star.
The sources warned that the vacuum which could be left by
Mikati’s resignation would be devastating for the general situation in the
country, and the paralysis could last until 2013 because it would be impossible
for a caretaker Cabinet to conduct parliamentary elections.
In an interview with LBCI television Thursday night, Mikati said
the divisive issue of the tribunal’s funding would be put to a vote at a
crucial Cabinet meeting scheduled for Nov. 30.
The votes of more than half of the 30 Cabinet members are
required to approve the requested loan for the tribunal.
But Hezbollah and its March 8 allies, which reject the STL’s
funding, have a majority in the Cabinet that enables them to block any such
decision.
The assessment of the opponents of the STL’s funding,
particularly Hezbollah, from now until next week’s Cabinet session will be
different from that which existed before Mikati’s TV interview because the
interview clearly showed that his statement about resignation was not a threat
or a media leak, the sources said. They added that there is a significant
possibility that the opponents of the STL’s funding would take this new
situation into account.
According to sources, Hezbollah and other parties making up the
government stand to benefit from the presence of this government and will be
the first losers if it collapses.
Therefore, the sources did not rule out the possibility that
contacts might have already been launched to find a solution suitable to the
concerned parties for the problem of the STL’s funding.
Hezbollah can at the last minute prevent the collapse of the
government unless it has a different perspective on the situation in Lebanon
and the region could change if the funding is not allocated, the sources said.
This situation requires that Mikati remain prime minister and
this government stay in office to serve as the only umbrella to protect
Lebanon, the Lebanese and the resistance against internal and external strikes
as much as possible, the sources said.
They added that consultations, which have begun between Mikati
and Hezbollah on the STL’s funding via several mediators, will be intensified
from now until next week’s Cabinet session in an attempt to break the deadlock
over paying Lebanon’s share to the tribunal’s budget.
The
ministerial sources noted that certain domestic parties, namely those in the
March 14 coalition, were betting on a change in the regional situation,
particularly in Syria – the results of the popular uprising there would favor
the side that is calling for toppling the Syrian regime, which would then see
Hezbollah and its allies subsequently accept what they are rejecting today. The
sources said such parties were adopting a mistaken reading of the situation,
reflecting the view of Western capitals, and that this approach resulted in
their loss of the government in Lebanon at the beginning of the year.
http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Politics/2011/Nov-26/155272-cabinet-formation-may-be-impossible-if-mikati-resigns.ashx#axzz1eXgY1TwC
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