The countdown has begun for the Cabinet’s session on Nov. 30 when the issue of funding for the Special Tribunal Lebanon will be put to a vote. The fate of the Cabinet rests on the decisive meeting, as Prime Minister Najib Mikati told ministers who stand against the STL’s funding that his resignation will be in his pocket and he will read it aloud at the end of the session if the issue isn’t approved.
This is the atmosphere today, two weeks before the session and on eve of the arrival to Beirut of the head of STL, who will reiterate to the prime minister and high-ranking officials what has been said before by the registrar of the STL, Herman von Hebel – namely that Lebanon has until Nov. 30 to pay its share of funding for the STL. If the issue isn’t settled before this date, the tribunal will be obliged to inform U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon of the development so that the Security Council can locate sufficient funds elsewhere. Since the president and prime minister have pledged to implement all articles of Resolution 1757, failing to fund the court would also damage Lebanon’s reputation and possibly lead to sanctions or other measures against the country.
Mikati’s decision to submit his resignation should the Cabinet not agree to fund the court was made after Finance Minister Mohammad Safadi told the prime minister that he would resign, as would Walid Jumblatt’s ministers. The decision was also made based on what Mikati heard from Arab and foreign ambassadors during meetings held over the past few days to explain the circumstances surrounding Lebanon’s vote against the Arab League’s recent decision on Syria.
Ministerial sources said that the prime minister has exhausted all possible avenues – local, regional and international – to convince Hezbollah to change or modify its stance on the STL’s funding. The sources said that Mikati has supported Hezbollah on several occasions – most importantly in his stance on arms and on the equation of army, people and resistance – so will be upset if Hezbollah does not follow his lead, especially since the work of the tribunal would not stop or be affected by Lebanon’s decision not to pay its share.
These sources said that Speaker Nabih Berri is aware of Mikati’s stance and has tried, and will continue to try, to convince Mikati to retract his decision to resign and to allow more time for discussions so an acceptable solution can be reached. Mikati, however, believes that he has done all he can to persuade those opposing the funding to change their minds, and can no longer postpone the issue for many reasons, the most important of which is to prevent turbulence in Lebanon. Another reason for moving forward is the criticism, especially from the Sunni community, of Mikati for the flexibility and patience he has shown on this issue, which has led to political fallout.
From now until Mikati’s return from the Vatican on Nov. 29, the efforts of most political blocs will be centered on persuading Hezbollah to change its position even it means that the government commits to modifying the protocol between Lebanon and the Security Council on the STL or persuading Michel Aoun’s ministers – with the approval of Hezbollah – to vote for the funding, as the issue requires two-thirds of the ministers’ approval. Parliamentary sources in the Reform and Change bloc do not rule out that such an exit could be discussed with Aoun.
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